This CSDN Discussion Paper examines the evolution of the European Union’s approach to fragility and its conflict drivers in the context of ongoing geopolitical shifts, institutional changes and discussions around the next Multiannual Financial Framework. Drawing on policy analysis and stakeholder interviews, it explores how recent developments are reshaping EU external action and its engagement in fragile and conflict-affected contexts.
The analysis highlights a gradual shift towards more interest-driven and geopolitically oriented partnerships, including a stronger focus on infrastructure investment and private sector engagement. While these trends aim to enhance the EU’s strategic positioning, they also raise questions about their compatibility with fragile contexts and their implications for conflict prevention and peacebuilding efforts.
The paper further examines the risks associated with increased financial flexibility, including reduced predictability and potential shifts away from long-term engagement in fragile settings. It emphasises the need to maintain a coherent and context-sensitive approach, ensuring that conflict sensitivity, governance considerations and sustained support to civil society remain central to EU external action. It also outlines recommendations to strengthen the EU’s effectiveness, credibility and strategic clarity in addressing fragility.
